H1 2026, reported before the open on Wednesday 9 September.
Twenty-four rated analysts, thirty-six brokers on the issuer's own list. A widely covered name with house previews available on every desk in Europe.
Locked Tuesday 8 September, 08:12 CEST · sent before the print
| S1 | Demand accelerates again. August trading reaches double-digit growth. | +3.75% or better |
| S2 | Demand holds. August trading stays high-single digit. BASE CASE | −4.50% to +3.75% |
| S3 | Demand slows. August trading slows to mid-single digit or below. | −4.50% or worse |
| S4 | Margin confidence breaks. The annual margin outlook is cut. | −9.00% or worse |
Half of Inditex's last ten prints moved more than 4.5%. The ranges are built from that history, which is why the middle range spans eight and a quarter points on this name and under three on a quieter one.
| August sales | Does August trading hold the early-Q2 pace of 11.5% in constant currency? Prior: early Q2 ran 11.5%. | |
| Gross margin | Does H1 gross margin stay at or above 58.3%? Prior: H1 2025 was 58.3%. | |
| Net income | Does H1 net income exceed 3.05bn? Consensus: S&P seven-analyst build dated 8 Sep is 3.05bn. | |
| Net cash | Does H1 net cash remain at or above 10.012bn? Prior: H1 2025 was 10.012bn. |
Wednesday 9 September, 07:58 CEST · before the open
| August sales | Store and online sales in constant currency grew 9% from 1 August to 7 September, against the 11.5% early-Q2 pace. | Not met |
| Gross margin | H1 gross margin was 58.7% against 58.3%, up 40 bps. | Confirmed |
| Net income | H1 net income was 2.980bn against the 3.05bn threshold. | Not met |
| Net cash | H1 net cash was 10.398bn against 10.012bn, up 4%. | Confirmed |
Matched scenario: S2. Current trading at 9% fell inside S2's 7.0% to 9.9% condition. S1 required at least 10.0%, S3 less than 7.0%, and S4 a cut to the annual gross-margin outlook, which did not come. That match was fixed at 07:58, before the open and before any close existed, and the scorecard used it unchanged.
Thursday 10 September · graded on the official BME close
Inditex closed at 54.4800, down 3.61% from the 8 September reference. Direction was a hit — S2 called a contained two-way reaction and the close stayed inside it. Magnitude was a hit — −3.61% landed inside the locked −4.50% to +3.75% range, with no tolerance needed.
The path was not tidy. The shares opened lower, traded through S2's −4.50% lower edge during the session, and recovered above it into the close. The official close governs the grade, not the intraday low.
That is the distinction the product turns on. The four questions ask what the company will report. The four ranges ask how the print will trade. Inditex missed on August trading and on net income, cleared margin and cash, and closed inside the middle range — because a high-single-digit current-trading number against a crowded positive panel is a contained outcome, whatever the earnings line does.