Including the ones we get wrong.
Before a company reports, we publish one page: the four questions the release will answer, and four scenarios with a percentage range attached to each. The calls are locked and time-stamped before the print. The morning after, we grade them against the official close.
Nobody on the sell side publishes a scorecard on themselves. That is the point.
| Company | Day one close | Direction | Magnitude | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | Aedifica | +0.29% | HIT | HIT |
| 2 Sep 2026 | AUTO1 | −3.67% | HIT | HIT |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Vivendi | −6.70% | HIT | UNDER-CALLED |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Rubis | +1.65% | HIT | OVER-CALLED |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Inditex | −3.61% | HIT | HIT |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Bolloré | −0.32% | HIT | OVER-CALLED |
Six of six on direction. On magnitude, three exact and three one band out.
Worked examples: Inditex, 9 September, where the call landed exactly, and Vivendi, 4 September, where the direction was right and the size was a band short. Each shows what we said the day before, what the release said before the open, and how it closed.
The grey bar is the range we called. The marker is where the stock closed. exact one band out
The unit is each stock's own median down move, not a percentage. One unit is one typical down day for that name, so six very different stocks sit on one axis. That is why every downside edge lands on −1×: a range does not begin where we guess, it begins at the move the stock actually makes. Closes in percent are in the table above.
A faded bar end means the range was open — "or better", "or worse". An open range is not a free hit: where the close cleared a deeper range, as Vivendi's did at four and a half median moves, the size is under-called and graded as such.
Scenarios are anchored to how each stock has actually moved on its own results, not to a house view. Half of Inditex's last ten prints moved more than 4.5%; half of Bolloré's last twelve moved more than 1.6%. The ranges are built from that, so the same words mean different numbers on different names.
Direction and magnitude are graded separately and never blended. Direction is whether the close landed on the side we called. Magnitude is whether it landed inside the range. A call can be right on the side and a band out on the size, and when it is, we say so. The full method is here.
The record above is open to anyone. The underlying sheets are available to professional investors.