H1 2026, reported after the close on Thursday 3 September.
The call went the right way and was not deep enough. This is what that looks like when it is published rather than quietly dropped.
Locked Wednesday 2 September · sent before the print
| S1 | The discount narrows. Group EBITA clears prior H1, with net debt lower than Q1. | +2.75% or better |
| S2 | The holding pattern survives. Group EBITA holds near prior H1, with net debt little changed. BASE CASE | −1.50% to +2.75% |
| S3 | Costs swamp the progress. Group EBITA misses prior H1 as corporate costs stay high. | −1.50% or worse |
| S4 | The legal charge lands. A material EU provision drives a group loss, with net debt higher. | −3.50% or worse |
| Group EBITA | Does H1 group EBITA exceed €18m? Prior: H1 2025 was €18m. | |
| Gameloft sales | Does H1 Gameloft revenue exceed €143m? Prior: H1 2025 was €143m. | |
| Net debt | Does net debt stay below €1.55bn? Prior: Q1 2026 was €1.55bn. | |
| Cost plan | Does H1 corporate cost fall below €52m? Prior: H1 2025 was €52m. |
Friday 4 September, 06:16 CEST · before the open
| Group EBITA | Reported group EBITA was 4m against the locked test of 18m. Excluding the 21m headquarters charge it was 25m, our calculation. | Missed |
| Gameloft sales | H1 Gameloft revenue was 132m. It was 11m below 143m as launches moved to H2, our calculation. | Missed |
| Net debt | H1 net debt was 1.591bn against the locked ceiling of 1.55bn. Acquisitions and the dividend drove the increase. | Missed |
| Cost plan | Reported H1 corporate cost was 66m against the locked test of 52m. Recurring cost was 45m. | Missed |
Matched scenario: S3. We leaned to the contained outcome, while the release matched the downside case because group EBITA missed prior H1 and corporate costs stayed high. That match was fixed at 06:16, before the open and before any close existed, and the scorecard used it unchanged.
Monday 7 September · graded on the official Euronext close
Vivendi closed at 1.490, down 6.70% from the 3 September reference, at the low of the day and on three and a half times normal volume.
Direction was a hit. S3 called the downside and the stock closed down. Magnitude was under-called. S3's floor was −1.50%, but the close went straight through S4's deeper −3.50% floor as well, so the size was a band short and is graded as such. An open-ended range is not a free hit.
In the stock's own terms, the close was four and a half times Vivendi's median down move. The ranges are built from that median, so a print at four and a half of them was always going to be outside the call — and the honest grade says so rather than claiming an open floor as a win.